The present disclosure relates generally to systems and methods for analyzing energy consumption model data, and more particularly to systems and methods for determining an uncertainty in the parameters of a building energy use model.
Many buildings are equipped with a variety of energy-consuming equipment and devices. For example, a building may be equipped with heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment that consume energy to regulate the temperature, humidity, and/or air quality in the building. Other exemplary types of energy-consuming building equipment include lighting fixtures, security equipment, data networking infrastructure, and other such equipment.
The energy efficiency of buildings has become an area of interest in recent years. For an energy provider, a high energy efficiency of the buildings that it services helps to alleviate strains placed on the energy provider's electrical generation and transmission assets. For a building operator, a high energy efficiency corresponds to greater financial savings because less energy is consumed by the building.
One way to improve the energy efficiency of a building is through an accurate model of the building's energy use. An energy use model for a building typically predicts the building's total energy consumption as a function of one or more predictor variables and one or more model parameters. Some energy use models include a balance point. A balance point (or a break even temperature) is a threshold temperature value defining a range of outside air temperatures for which heating or cooling is required to maintain the temperature inside the building within an acceptable range.
Previous modeling techniques allow for some of the parameters in a building energy use model to be estimated and for their uncertainties to be determined. However, previous modeling techniques do not allow the uncertainty in a balance point estimate to be calculated. It remains difficult and challenging to determine the uncertainty associated with many parameters in a building energy use model, including balance point parameters.